On The Popular Side
What a difference a week makes. Last week the L.A. Times was reporting the results of their poll indicating that same-sex marriage rights were slightly disfavored in California. Today the S.F. Chronicle released the results of a Field Poll reversing the numbers and indicating 51% support for marriage equality.
So what changed? Was the wording on the question different enough to skew the results? Is someone’s random sample off? Or was an extra week of scary religious types threatening plagues of locusts on the Golden State if the court’s ruling stands just enough to show how silly the proposed Amendment and its backers really are?
Interesting to see the demographic splits in the new poll:
The heavily Democratic urban areas strongly support same-sex marriage; 55 percent of Los Angeles County and an overwhelming 68 percent of the Bay Area are in favor. By contrast, only 38 percent of the Central Valley and 41 percent of Southern California outside of Los Angeles are in favor.
Same-sex marriage also digs a chasm between California’s heavily populated coast and its inland areas; 55 percent of coastal voters back same-sex marriage compared with 40 percent in support inland.
The issue divides along liberal-conservative lines; 85 percent of strong liberals are in favor, and 85 percent of strong conservatives are opposed.
Protestants, who make up a third of the state’s voters, oppose same-sex marriage 34 percent to 57 percent, while Catholics are split almost equally, 45 percent in favor to 48 percent opposed. Those with no religious preference back same-sex marriage 81 percent to 12 percent.
I have to say that lumping non-L.A. Southern California, presumably everything from Santa Barbara to San Diego and east to the Arizona line, into one homogeneous group seems to be a bit reaching, but other than that the numbers are interesting. Feels good to be a coastal voter.
I have yet to see any political poll, on any political issue, that was worth anything this political season.
My other-side-of-the-world analysis boils down to this:
–The umbrella conservative groups and PACs (RNC, etc.) are not going to throw any money at California generally or this issue specifically; they simply can’t afford to. The state is a write-off this year as it is every presidential election year.
–The bigot-specific conservative groups (FoF, ADF, Eagle Forum, etc.) will be outspent and out-man-houred by the gay rights groups by an order of magnitude. To quote Yoda: “On this, all depends.”
–Bigot commentators seem to be depending on the Hispanic vote to put the referendum over the top. But Hispanics are Democratic first and anti-gay second. They will not “split the ticket” in November.
–If those Catholic numbers in the poll are correct (but again: “polls, meh…”) then the referendum has no hope at all, zero.
Will there be any other big referendum issues this year? Taxes, etc?
Right now only three initiatives have qualified for the November ballot: two bond issues (high-speed rail and Children’s Hospital, and a proposed law on treatment of farm animals.
The only other initiative of those pending signature counts that I think will be contentious is a slight-rollback of the three-strikes law, though a redistricting proposal might get some traction.
All this time I’ve anticipated that if California were to split politically on geography it would be North/South. If anything it would be coastal/inland.
I’m happy to see the Catholic split is a bit more tolerant than the Protestant split. I like to think there is some freethinking there. I miss Mass sometimes, but I’ve gotten back out of the habit these days. I think that’s specific to American Catholicism and not a global split.
Fun polls Chuck!
Damn activist farm animals!
So, no gold bands?